If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings:
1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most.
-> 6 pluggable engagements
-> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck)
That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it.
And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those.
2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one.
The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement:
"we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time."
It should…展开完整原文
If I had to be critical of $SIVE earnings:
1. Management underweighted the two disclosures that matter most.
-> 6 pluggable engagements
-> Foundry capacity (during an industry bottleneck)
That's the most important part of the call and should have been the focus to provide economic scale of them. But we got 2-3 sentences about it.
And it shouldn't take an Anime avatar on X to talk most about the implications of those.
2. CFO needs retraining or bring on a new one.
The lawyer like answers were infuriating to listen to as a shareholder. Even I got pissed off with this statement:
"we will evaluate the timing and decide whether the conditions are right to move forward at that particular time."
It should be a 100% given by now they file for dual listing to escape hostile Swedish markets.
Shareholders didn't fund a future growth type company to hear lawyer-like answers.
Again, this was probably one of the worst answers the CFO could have gave and there needs to be firm commitment along with faster timelines.
3. $70M should have gone toward M&A and dual listing.
-> Brutally honestly speaking, it's a waste of capital to focus on hybrid manufacturing at this stage and I was disappointed to hear this during this timeframe.
It's eventually needed but with 2 foundry suppliers
-> You have a ton of new capital and large marketcap.
Use it to pull $AVGO style acquisitions of Cloud Light style IP for pluggables or optical engines.
Lumilens went from 0 -> $5.5B in 2 years and now with hyperscaler engagements.
Sivers should expand out of the laser chokepoint as fast as possible and not stay just a component vendor.
And most of all, who cares about competing with customers? If a customer says: "if you do pluggables, we'll go with other players for lasers"
who?? $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI reroutes their lasers to internal usage. Lot of your Asian players already allocated.
Abuse the current bottleneck as much as possible because there's almost no qualified choices left.
And I'm certain all the partners are trying to vertically integrate upward toward the laser level too and compete.
If there was a new OE/pluggable accusation attempted during the Q2 time frame, things would have been a lot different.
_
TLDR:
$SIVE should aim to be the next $LITE and blitzscale like a Silicon Valley company.
Use that $70m capital to move faster H2, and at the bare minimum finish readiness then. And expect NASDAQ listing to be finished H1 2027.
Not "evaluation" at that timeframe.
And use the capital + equity to expand downward into optical engines/ELS/optical transceivers using your equity valuation, and buy a Celestial/Ayar/Cloud Lite type startup.
As for the wording of the call, markets care about economic value of the foundry allocation + 6 pluggable players, not other business segments.
$SIVE has been extremely conservative to date, but
they need to speed up and communicate to forward looking US/Int shareholders.
Not geared toward local Swedish audiences who care about Q2/TTM revenue.
Otherwise they'll be treated like an Asian component supplier and eventually be valued like an EU one.
