跟踪 Serenity 的最新研究

Anthropic's Economic Scenario publication was a pretty interesting read: 1. Anthropic's "extreme" scenario has GDP growth reaching 15.4% in 2030 So around 7.3x current rates (~2.1% Y/Y), which is consistent with what Elon Musk is saying about outgrowing the national debt with AI. 2. Almost all of the divergence happens after 2027. Their model shows relatively little separation in 2026-2027, then the curves bend sharply into 2028-2030. So my read is that it points to 2026-2027 as buildout years and 2028-2030 as economic acceleration. Kinda gets mapped as well when you look at $AMZN / $META / $GOOGL capex, and short term FCF headwinds (but massive projected profitability post 2028) 3. In an extreme scenario, unemployment of knowledge workers goes to 17.9%. With 11.9% economy-wide unemployment "At the individual level, it means coders and call service center agents may have to switch to jobs like electrician and nurse, which are less exposed to AI." GG computer science majors. 4. Non-cognitive wages: +33.6% vs. baseline in an extreme scenario. So your electricians/construction-type labor becomes extremely valuable? (but this isn't factoring in humanoids yet...) Whereas -11.5% for knowledge workers in 2030 vs. baseline. 5. Aggregate capital income is ~81% higher than it would have been without AI Productivity explodes -> aggregate labor income barely changes -> essentially all of the incremental GDP accrues to capital. So that makes ownership of capital rather than labor... so equities like compute, power, semis, networking, robotics, etc. become pretty important... TLDR: - Economic growth go brr - Jobs that require thinking = unemployment + lower wages - Physical labor = more important, like electricians. - AI equities go brrr.

So $INTC is raising PC CPU prices by 10% apparently in October per Digitimes, which I think markets might appreciate. The legacy memory trade also just going brrr from August revenues: -> ESMT revenue up ~+605% Y/Y, 16.4% M/M Which is interesting given gross margins also rising tremendously too. -> Etron revenue up +525% Y/Y, +6.4% M/M Chairman says he sees growth momentum in memory to extend through 2028 or longer, potentially 2030. (which is very positive read through for ESMT given what Etron sells) *own ESMT/Etron -> Winbond revenue up +289.43% Y/Y, up 2% M/M Their president says memory supply and demand are expected to be even tighter in 2027 than in 2026. -> Macronix revenue up +218.5% Y/Y, +5.4% M/M Says SLC NAND, eMMC, NOR remain tight (kinda known there). So... if you think your 80%-100% type revenue growth players are insane. Check out legacy memory (operating income is even more hilarious). There's a few more where ~ modeled forward P/E values of like 2-3 from my estimates. I personally find the theme a better value investing type idea than your 16 P/E no-growth dividend companies.

Is there any other industry... Where every investor is cheering for shortages and price hikes? SED reported today that: Samsung / $SKHY "stockpiles have fallen to less than 10 days of supply, and a severe shortage could emerge next year, according to a new forecast" KB Securities said that the memory market next year will see "the tightest supply conditions in history" KB Securities projects memory's share of AI infrastructure costs to expand from 40% this year to 57% next year, with others like TrendForce placing next year's figure at 68% (total hyperscaler capex, pretty wild forecast attached) "Both stocks have fallen 38% from their peaks over the past three months, pushing their price-to-earnings ratios based on next year's expected results down to about three times." Likewise, commentary around Phison stated they expect extremely tight NAND supply in 2027, so hard to see memory flooding the market or prices collapsing next year... They gave some color that "soaring NAND prices have forced some Chinese consumer module makers to liquidate inventory, giving Phison opportunities to buy lower-priced stock", so it does show some price declines can coexist with broader shortages. TLDR: KOSPI + read through for other names like $MU / $SNDK might be happy for 2027 given demand causing shortages + infra spend share increase.

Got curious and decided to track which thesis of mine were still up 100%+ YTD after the recent drawdown: 1. $AXTI - InP substrates 2. $NBIS - Neoclouds 3. $MU - Memory 4. $INTC - Foundry 5. $LITE - Photonics 6. $IQE - Epiwafers 7. $AAOI - Photonics 8. $GDRZF - Venezuela 9. $AEHR - Machines 10. $EWY (volatility + underlying) 11. $RPI - AI orchestration 12. $SOI - SIlicon Photonics Substrates 13. $SNDK - Memory 14. $SIMO - Memory 15. $MRVL - ASICs 16. Nanya - memory 17. Unimicron - substrates 18. $ARM - CPUs 19. $SIVE - Photonics From H1 2026, around 19 names across several themes up 100%+ still from the selection of winners. Since many like $TSEM / $HPS.A / $LPK / $ALRIB fell out of the range. (obviously not all are green like Shunsin / $XFAB and disappointed by performance). Regardless, glad a lot of my ideas turned out decently, rather than just being known for one like $AXTI. To the point the Chinese community gave my investing style a name "Perilla Leaf Theory". Again not too sure if my new ideas replicate this performance again in H2 2026 or 2027... For H2, my new thesis was on $CCXI for humanoids/downstream physical AI shift and ESMT for DDR2/DDR3/legacy memory. But I'll keep sharing my core ideas and thought process for free so people can poke holes or debate it until things get validated.

China reportedly halts some rare earth shipments to US. Not a new blanket ban, or any mention of specific rare earths. But… if I had to guess, Japan is usually a decent indicator of what’s actively important since Japan: - “sources virtually all of its dysprosium and terbium from China.” - gallium, dysprosium, terbium and yttrium from China to Japan all stood at “zero” in June. - Shin-Etsu Chemical has reportedly suspended acceptance of new orders for magnets containing dysprosium. - Global magnet producer Proterial had received no export licenses for Chinese dysprosium as of last month The Reuters piece mentioned yttrium, gallium, terbium, indium phosphide, and tungsten as historical examples (doesn’t say what’s being targeted now). On a side note, $LYC.AX is becoming one of the most important alternatives, as Japan has locked up 75% of Lynas’s medium/heavy rare-earth output. (8 tons of dysprosium + terbium in Q1) Something fun I also read is that Japan’s deep sea resource is enormous (est. at 16 million tons of rare earth rich mud, but commercialization is post-2028) But in the meantime, China seem to be choking off feedstock that would materially affect Japan. Since you’ve already seen the WF6 Japanese industry stressed from tungsten related halts. And indium/others earlier this year that is used to make InP substrates from Sumitomo/JX. But still gradually allowing exports directly eg. $AXTI -> $LITE to allow US/China trade to continue, kinda disrupting that from time to time, then using that as leverage. It’s interesting since Japan has so many different monopolies like ABF, so we’ll see if they do anything back. But if I had to give a prediction, it does look like the US has a countdown timer until China becomes self-sufficient on semiconductors. TLDR: - rare earth disruption to US - China actively targeting Japan for upstream feedstock (which goes to Us supply chains), probably want to focus on that - many many second/third order effects from disruptions - we’ll see what US/Japan wants to do back, but supply chain wars are being fought upstream.

$MRVL SVP and CTO of Optical Engineering Radha Nagarajan, at Semicon Taiwan: 1. Names Europe/Japan for laser supply sourcing as examples for SiPH modules. Very interesting that Marvell's SVP had Europe in mind when giving examples of laser supply sourcing for SiPH modules. I can't really name any notable public EU merchant laser suppliers other than $SIVE. Japan I can namedrop a few like Sumitomo/Furukawa etc. Maybe I'm reading too much into the geography, but a lot of US players like $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI are redirecting laser capacity internally, so it's interesting that the US wasn't mentioned. 2. Silicon photonics, high-speed drivers, amplifiers and DSPs come from other suppliers, with final integration taking place in Taiwan Makes sense, with $TSM COUPE / $ASX / ShunSin, and others. 3. Nagarajan appears to say NPO could arrive first around late 2027–2028, with full CPO continuing afterward. Good to hear more about commercialization timelines. $LITE similarly sees NPO around late 2027-H1 2028, while expecting CPO laser shipments in H2 2027 ahead of CPO scale up deployments in 2028. Revenue from upstream suppliers usually hits a bit earlier. 4. $MRVL on Google's TPU program vs. $AVGO / Mediatek and others. "Hyperscalers are seeking greater supply-chain diversification. If Google selects Marvell for a particular AI-chip segment, that does not mean it will stop working with MediaTek or Broadcom". Guess he's just trying to emphasize pie keeps growing for ASIC suppliers, nothing really too new. 5. All of Marvell's advanced ICs and ASICs are manufactured at TSMC, making the foundry central to the broader architecture. $TSM backbone of AI as usual. TLDR: - Very odd Marvell's SVP highlights Europe for laser sourcing, given how small a pool for merchant suppliers there is... - NPO volume looks late 2027, CPO after that. Upstream optical suppliers should start seeing revenue earlier

Just taking a look at Leopold's Situational Awareness Q2 13F latest holdings as of June 30th: 1. $SNDK - $5.674B 2. $MU - $5.574B 3. $BE - $1.899B 4. $TSM - $1.265B 5. $NBIS - $1.232B 6. $CRWV - $744.5M 7. $CORZ - $665.6M 8. $STM - $584.3M (new) 9. $APLD - $469.0M 10. $RIOT - $468.2M 11. $SHAZ - $456.8M 12. $IREN - $433.3M Less material positions includeed $CLSK, $KEEL, sei-network:native, $WYFI, $BTDR, $TE, $HIVE, $VSH, and others. Seems like Situational Awareness concentrated around memory (Sandisk, Micron), that have low forward multiples but high visibility into 2030. As well as Anthropic/energy/power adjacent from colo/neoclouds + Bloom. Some of the bottlenecks like the MLCC trade, he couldn't see play out (Taiyo Yuden, etc). due to July's liqudation. And some are new like $STM (eg. MCU price hikes). With core winners of everything such as $TSM (but less high-beta). This looked similar to my H2 2026/early 2027 portfolio with Nebius, Micron, TSM, colo players and others as core focus. (I've heavily concentrated on upstream networking/legacy memory currently, with a lot of name overlap). But always cool to see what others are doing.

Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes