跟踪 Serenity 的最新研究

Just some TLDR news I found interesting: 1. $GOOGL (missed this) also invested in Mediatek alongside $NVDA for their $3.9B raise. Google/Nvidia are goats with investments you look at $SPCX to Anthropic. 2. Samsung Electro-Mechanics discloses $778.9M MLCC deal / $CAPA (new MLCC ETF) also gives exposure now for folks without Korea/Japan/Taiwan market access. But thing is more accelerators x MLCCs per accelerator might indicate a more future extreme bottleneck than people expect. 3. China channel checks state: planetary roller screws, 6D force sensors, and dexterous hands resist domestic substitution. Then planetary roller screw as the top with lowest domestic substitution rate. eg. $SHA0.DE for planetary. Just interesting to hear moats I guess. 4. Samsung reportedly has ~70% of memory production capacity committed through 2031 / commodity DRAM has also fallen into short supply - Seoul Economic Daily. TrendForce expects server DRAM contract prices to rise 13-18% QoQ in 3Q26 SK Hynix also publicly stated the memory shortage lasts through 2030. 5. $CXMT has begun producing HBM3E in small quantities and reportedly claimed mass production of LPDDR6. Implications are even more positive for legacy DRAM shortages. 6. Cisco at SEMICON Taiwan said CPO is ready for mass deployment; pluggable modules will remain the market mainstay. $MRVL also said customers are actively planning scale-up optics deployments as early as 2027 7. Wingtech -> bought Nexperia -> Netherlands effectively removed Wingtech’s control -> Wingtech is fighting back through Chinese courts. But Nexperia got $300m of their assets frozen. More geopolitical drama of course, always entertaining. $AAPl also explicitly accused OpenAI of destroying crucial evidence... (for more fun) 8. Not much description around ASP hikes regarding SOI substrates $SOI, but they now have 10+ customers involved with LTAs, $200m revenue described as a "floor", comments about customers more concerned about obtaining wafers than where they are manufactured. So basically moving into capacity reservation now stages as silicon photonics takes off in 2027. 9. Some channel checks put lead times for high power MOSFETs and large area TVS diodes as high as ~52 weeks. ($STM also reportedly implemented its 3rd 2026 price increase on August 23) 10. Traditional packaging capacity could face a deficit exceeding 20% by 2027" with "wire bonding equipment" emerging as the primary bottleneck", covered this earlier this week with beneficiaries like 11. Claims that all six major ABF suppliers are booked for 2026, with 12-14 month lead times and some suppliers auctioning remaining capacity; $NVDA, $AMD and hyperscalers locking ABF capacity through 2028 and pushing suppliers to plan 2029–30 expansions. Names like Kinsus (3189), Unimicron (3037), Nan Ya PCB (8046), Ibiden (4062), etc are all probably happy. 12. CCL leading laminated board products increased by another 10%-20%, 7th price hike this year (eg. Kingboard). Industry estimates put the HVLP4 copper-foil shortage at ~48% in 2026 / 43% in 2027, while Low-Dk/T-Glass lead times have stretched beyond 30 weeks. 13. "(GaAs) substrate materials and gallium epitaxial source materials are also facing another round of price increases in the third quarter of 2026, reportedly 5 to 6 times higher than at the early stage of the restrictions." "China has recently eased some substrate export controls" but there's a "severe InP substrate shortage" per digitimes. Just some $AXTI related updates 14. $AMD and $AVGO reportedly booked most of Powertech's planned FOPLP capacity ahead of mid-2027 mass production 15. $INTC considering $INTC foundry for HBM4E base dies. But $SKHY responded directly that "some of the content is different from the facts". 16. "OpenAI Hoarding Tens Of Thousands Of $AAPL Mac mini and Mac Studio" for reinforcement learning. Anthropic has been renting mac mini units from $AMZN as well. Kinda sad Tim Cook retired, but dude had a goated run. Just random interesting notes

$NVDA earnings TLDR: Revenue: $96.22B vs. ~$92.17B (beat) Adj. EPS: $2.22 vs. $2.09-$2.10 (beat) DC: $89.0B vs. ~$86.3B (beat) Adj. gross margin: 75% vs. 75% Hyperscaler Revenue: $48.71B from $43.05B last quarter (custom ASIC growth hasn't really prevented this revenue from accelerating) For guidance: Revenue: $108B vs. ~$104.2B Adj. gross margin: 74% vs. 75% (kinda the only soft spot) Revenue ramp has been genuinely absurd over last 4 quarters. -> $68.1B -> $81.6B -> $96.2B (we are here) -> next quarter guidance: $108B, despite assuming zero China DC compute revenue. Fun thing to note is Nvidia says its commitments jumped from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily related to procurement of memory (for next few years).. So memory goes brrr. TLDR: AI keeps on going brrr. Nvidia is clearly leading the charge and no obvious signs of demand slowing. Given Nvidia is already a $5T+ company, I think most of the alpha comes from how Nvidia's architecture/capacity decisions impact elsewhere in the supply chain (eg. CPO, memory, 800V) nowadays. Rather than simply finding mispricing in Nvidia itself. Regardless, all the fun stuff happens in the earnings call in a few min.

I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now… But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”? So now you have: - $LITE (capacity gone) - $COHR (capacity gone) - Landmark (capacity committed) - $AAOI (capacity for transceivers) - $MTSI (not online) - $SMTC (limited) I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia? So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players). Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers). Let’s see how they execute.

I know everyone's focused on Nancy Pelosi copytraders sending $BE up 11.83%. Or Trump... But you know what else is cool? FAU bottlenecks for CPO. I remember saying earlier this year FAU/Foci might be a future bottleneck around $TSM / $NVDA CPO roadmaps... This was some media commentary supporting that: "It is understood that Largan Precision (3008), FOCI (3363), and China’s TFC have entered $NVDA FAU supply chain" "Based on an estimated 20,000 Spectrum-X systems shipped this year, the optical engines installed in those systems would require approximately 600k-700k FAUs" In 2027, demand is expected to reach several million units, and existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand." (UDN, mandarin -> english translation is kinda off) Cough cough, "existing supply chain capacity is currently unable to meet demand" Tad early right now since mass production is expected H2 2027, but cool to read updates around this.

I feel like AI investing is simpler than what people expect. Because $NVDA + Jensen literally tells everyone what's coming. But somehow. Almost every. single. time. Markets dismiss it until it actually happens? Be Nvidia in 2025: Buys up EML and laser capacity. Markets dismissing it: "Photonics is a bubble and like quantum! ____ company is a scam with shady management" 1 year later: $LITE +678%, $AAOI +475.12%, $COHR +260.7%, $AXTI +3,843.9%. _ Nvidia in 2026: Buys up CW/EML capacity with LTAs. 800V shift. Extraordinary explicit about CPO shift. States Physical AI as the next theme. Markets now: "CW players are meme stocks! 800v, CPO is not coming anytime soon, Humanoids are not profitable!" Yeah... We'll see what happens in 2027. I think I'm putting my money on Jensen/Nvidia as the leading indicator.

Just some TLDRs of stuff I found interesting: - $SNDK 80% adjusted gross margins projections through 2030, ~75% operating margins and ~50% adjusted FCF margins from investor day. LTAs already 2/3rd of 2028 output. Minimum contracted revenue reaches $93B (MC is currently ~$239B)... Hard to be a cyclical stock when your revenue/targets are expected to continue 4Y later into 2030. - $CRWV signs contracts for 6Y old $NVDA A100 GPUs through 2029. For Neoclouds like Nebius/Iren, this is positive, since it's a counterargument for eg. Burry depreciation short thesis - conventional DRAM gross margins eg. Micron is estimated to reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, surpassing HBM GMs per UBS read through for legacy/standard dram players like Nanya/Winbond should go brrrr if projections are correct. - Anthropic reportedly achieved 14x+ YoY growth and roughly 2.4x sequential revenue growth q2 to >$11.5B,. estimating growth to $190–200B in 2028r evenue numbers. Your frontier labs keep growing at stupidly fast paces, it would be worrisome if they didnt. - $NVDA reportedly in talks to invest $3B in SB Energy (Softbank subsidiary), creates a >$500B compute financing push with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman, and others. $NVDA Feynman reportedly moves to TSMC A16 + SoIC + custom HBM + CPO in H2 2028 Just more nvidia news every day - $MSFT Maia 300 discussed $TSM capacity for >300k units in 2027, with expansion to 1m+. Unveils as soon as September. Likely $MRVL should be more happy from this news. For what's happening right now: - maybe GUC for Microsoft current ASIC ramp. - For the Amazon party, stuff like Alchip (I do own shares), likely is ramping now with $AMZN ASIC program H2 2026... So might be a good idea to look at hyperscaler ASIC ramp timelines + their beneficiaries. - $TSM VP of Advanced Packaging stated "the industry is likely to face not only memory shortages but also tight ABF substrate supply over the next few years"... Emphasis on few years for memory + ABF substrates for bottlenecks. Even upstream abf substrate equipment providers are happy, eg. Eternal Precision which uses vacuum lamination equipment stated orders surged, their plants have been running at full capacity, and 20%+ price hikes. - $AMAT expects advanced packaging revenue to grow >70% in 2026, versus prior >50%, and said customer discussions now extend all the way to 2030 (not too familiar with this company, but found their growth rate from 2025 Q4 $6.8B ->$7.01B -> 7.91B -> $9.12B -> $10.25B Q4 2026 projections pretty interesting) - Google said at OCP APAC said conventional 48V is running out of headroom. $NVDA detailed an 800VDC MGX-compatible rack H2 2026 (timeline, Delta / Lite-On beneficaries) - Aside from $SNDK, Nanya LTAs cover 50% of capacity. CXMT signed multi-year DRAM agreements last month, so entire memory industry seems to be following same playbook as ur big 3. - Probe cards remain a bottleneck, MPI(6223) said their probe card capacity remains fully utilized because demand exceeds supply. Already covered the CW laser bottleneck with $AAOI, $SIVE, and $LITE earlier this week, but that's another fun one. - some MLCC/component lead times have hit 36 weeks per Nichidenbo. Your Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Taiyo Yuden, Murata, players should be very happy to hear this. TLDR: AI supply chains go brrr.